The answer right now appears to be "oui."
Bloomberg reports that the latest poll from France suggests the incumbent president would lose decisively to his Socialist challenger.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy would lose by 57 percent to 43 percent against the Socialist challenger Francois Hollande if the two face-off in the second round of the elections, according to the latest BVA poll.
The gap has been stable for the past month, according to the poll, which was commissioned by phone company Orange, RTL Radio, and regional newspapers.
In the first round, Hollande would take 30 percent, followed by Sarkozy with 23 percent, National Front candidate Marine Le Pen with 18 percent, and centrist politician Francois Bayrou on 13 percent.
The first round of voting will be held on April 22 with the top two candidates facing off in the decisive contest on May 6.AFP notes that Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Hollande are facing pressure from candidates further to the right (in Mr. Sarkozy's case) and closer to the center (in Mr. Hollande's).
The Associated Press takes a look at Mr. Hollande and his front-runner status.
Marine Le Pen of the far-right anti-immigrant National Front party and Francois Bayrou of the centrist Democratic Movement have been making strides in opinion polls as the French watch a so-far insipid campaign stumble on.Hollande has consistently led opinion polls which indicate he is set to win 28-30 percent of votes in the first round on April 22, ahead of President Sarkozy’s 23-24 percent, Le Pen’s 18-20 percent and Bayrou’s 12-14 percent.But the popularity of Hollande, who was on Sunday to hold his first mass rally, is slowly but surely being eroded, while Sarkozy remains deeply unpopular with 63 percent of voters, allowing Le Pen and Bayrou to progress.Le Pen has to some extent managed to shake off her party’s xenophobic image, while her tough line on Islam, immigration and the elite in a France stricken by both a financial and identity crisis is increasingly popular.Her hope is to repeat her father Jean-Marie’s historic achievement in 2002, when he made it to the second round before being trounced by incumbent Jacques Chirac.Former education minister Bayrou, who has made his independence from the politics of left and right his trademark, has meanwhile gone from seven percent of polled votes in December to 14 percent in January.Opinion polls show that most French no longer identify with either Sarkozy’s right-wing discourse or that of the Socialist Party, handing Bayrou a gift.